Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Lynn Parramore: Greg Mankiw - America’s Most Shameless Defender of the 1 Percent, Harvard Economist Greg Mankiw « naked capitalism

Nice piece...

Lynn Parramore: Meet America’s Most Shameless Defender of the 1 Percent, Harvard Economist Greg Mankiw « naked capitalism:

Lynn Parramore: Meet America’s Most Shameless Defender of the 1 Percent, Harvard Economist Greg Mankiw

Readers were duly exercised about a paper published by Greg Mankiw which had to go through so many hoops to promote the idea that inequality was the result of merit as to be worthy of our Frederic Mishkin Iceland Prize for Intellectual Integrity.
Suffice it to say further ridicule of Mankiw is in order, and Parramore provides a useful contribution.
By Lynn Parramore, a senior editor at Alternet. Cross posted from Alternet
It’s not really news that America’s economics departments, particularly at elite institutions, are stuffed with people whose careers are founded on protecting monied interests. But it’s pretty rare when someone just comes straight out and announces the fact.
Meet Greg Mankiw, chairman and professor of economics at Harvard, one of the most influential economists in the country. As chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, he guided the economic blundering of George W. Bush. Then in 2006, he became an adviser to Mitt Romney and steered Romney's economic positions in 2012, which included some of the most shocking expressions of classism yet heard from a presidential candidate.
Mankiw's name might not be a household word, but the tentacles of his power and influence extend into Washington, the blogosphere and the classroom, where he molds young minds through his ubiquitous textbooks and lectures (that is, when students are not walking out to protest his conservative bias and harmful agenda).
Above all, Mankiw is the self-appointed Defender in Chief of the 1 percent. How do we know this? Well, because he just published a 23-page paper called “Defending the One Percent.” It’s helpful to understand the official propaganda line in the class war, and Mankiw has laid it out in a paper that purports to determine whether income inequality requires any intervention.
Professor Mankiw begins by asking the reader to imagine a perfectly egalitarian society where the economy is totally efficient and everybody has the same amount of money. What happens, he asks, when a Steve Jobs pops up? Somebody smarter, more creative than everybody else? Suddenly Mr. Entrepreneur makes amazing things that everybody wants to buy, and now economic inequality has entered the egalitarian utopia. Is it fair to intervene and restore equality by penalizing Mr. Entrepreneur?
It must be said that this opening sally, with its clumsily constructed straw man, would not pass muster with a high school debating coach. Most of Mankiw’s opponents do not ask for perfect income equality or imagine perfect efficiency, but rather envision a playing field in which everyone has a chance to succeed and Mr. Entrepreneur has incentives to conduct his business fairly and to share some of the rewards of his efforts with the community that made them possible. Instead of forming a cartel to hold down the wages of his young engineers, as Steve Jobs did. Or colluding to fix prices, as Steve Jobs is also accused of having done. Or backdating stock options to be sure he comes out in the money. And so on.
Mankiw’s writing displays the sensibility of a young person suddenly infatuated with the writings of Ayn Rand, and in the fine tradition of Randian entrepreneur worship, he pretends that economic inequality is mostly the result of certain people being smarter and more creative than others (one brief glance at the Forbes list of the richest Americans, which is populated by quite a few trust fund babies, destroys this illusion). In a nutshell, he argues that egalitarianism in antithetical to entrepreneurialism.
Not many people would actually argue that we don’t want smart people making cool things. We do. But we also recognize that sometimes MrEntrepreneur, heady with his economic success, becomes greedy and starts to try to arrange things so that other entrepreneurs will not be able to compete with him. He begins to cheat and bully and set his boot on the neck of his fellow residents of Utopialand. He may even channel his brilliance into making things that don’t help his neighbor, but actually do harm, like a complicated financial product rigged to drain the bank accounts of unsuspecting citizens.
Many Americans now have personal experience with what happens when Mankiw’s vision turns into a nightmare. They’ve begun to realize that markets often don’t work the way he says they do and that our political system has not been doing enough to correct their failures and address the resulting unfairness that leaves many smart, energetic people unable to find an opportunity to fully contribute to society and demonstrate their talents. That’s why Nobel Prize-winning economist and Columbia professor Joseph Stiglitz, whose proclivity for truth-telling has alarmed his Ivy League colleagues, wrote a book called The Price of Inequality in which he points out that America, our beloved land of opportunity, “may have become more class-based than old Europe” due to gross economic unfairness.
Unlike Stiglitz, Mankiw seems to be less interested in thinking about how to correct the market’s failures than reinforcing them. Why is this?
I don’t normally like to play the psychologist, but in trying to get a sense of what kind of man could be so blinded as to fail to grasp the fundamental challenge of our time, I watched some public appearances by Mankiw on the Web. I found something very revealing—a commencement speech he gave just a few weeks ago at Chapel Hill-Chauncey Hall, a prep school in North Carolina, where one of his children has been enrolled.
The story Mankiw tells about himself to those students seems to encapsulate so much of what is wrong with the field of economics that I think it’s worth dissecting. Mankiw comes off as an affable guy who transcended his early math geek persona to become a highly regarded economic professional. The fundamental moment in his history was when his parents chose to take him out of a large public school, where he was not being properly nurtured, and send him to an elite private school in New Jersey, where he flourished. Mankiw congratulates the students at Chapel Hill-Chauncey Hall for making a similar smart “choice” to better themselves in the supportive, tight-knit community of prep school. He seems blissfully unaware that for most children, attending an elite, expensive private school is not on the menu of options. Rather, he sees the world as a place where some succeed solely because they make better choices than others, not because some people have more money with which to advance themselves.
There’s also something very telling in Mankiw’s description of his youthful enthusiasm for mathematics. He was an excellent math student in high school, but realized in college that he would make a second-rate mathematician, so he turned to economics, graduating in 1980 from Princeton and going on to study at Harvard and MIT. This was just around the time that economics was falling into a deep infatuation with mathematical models and losing the sense of itself as a social science grounded in politics, history and culture. The result has been devastating. Economists left the human world behind and entered a mechanistic paradise where their dogmatic and ultimately destructive paradigm failed to acknowledge the forces that were gathering into an economic storm worse than anything the country had seen since the Great Depression.
Slowly and fitfully, the field is now trying to reorient itself. Some economists, like Rob Johnson and his colleagues at the Institute for New Economic Thinking, are calling to reestablish economics as a broad, interdisciplinary field, open to disagreement and grounded in the humanities. Figures like Mankiw, dedicated to the old model, will stand in the way of this process. The Mankiws of the economics profession have devoted themselves to math, but they have not been steeped in the traditional values and ethics that underpin our democracy, and they consistently fail to imagine that their elegant mathematical models might not accurately depict the real world of complex human interactions and institutions.
Mankiw is not a reality-based economist, and it’s no wonder, as he has been cocooned in elite institutions since his parents pulled him out of public school as a boy. He bounced from an elite private school to elite colleges, and then landed softly at Harvard where he has been teaching for three decades. Mankiw lives in Wellesley, Massachusetts, a town in suburban Boston that is one of the wealthiest in the country. He is a defender of the 1 percent because he knows no other community, and the 1 percent has embraced and richly rewarded the insecure math geek who sat in the back of his public school classroom trying to hide behind his spectacles. How could he question them now?
Economists talk a lot about bubbles, but not enough about the kind Mankiw occupies, which so disastrously impacts his ability to contextualize his models or think clearly about the experiences of most of his fellow citizens. During Occupy, 70 students walked out of his introductory economics class in protest (the class, interestingly, was on inequality). In the New York Times, Mankiw accused the protesters of spewing platitudes and insisted that economics is not “laden with ideology.” According to his account, he watched the students walk out, and then, “After a few minutes, I resumed the class as usual.”
More recently, instead of braving the painful process of exposing the failures of prevalent economic theories, like the recently discredited work on debt and economic growth of his fellow Harvard economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, he has leapt to defend promoters of nonsense. In a blog post centered on the theme, “Hey, everybody makes mistakes,” he dismissed the seriousness of pushing shoddy economic work that was molded into austerity policies that have caused job loss, hunger and misery for millions of the Earth’s inhabitants.
With his latest paper, Mankiw defends the 1 percent as the source of all good in our economy and society, sounding much like an astronomer defending the Earth as the center of the universe. An astronomer who, if Galileo walked into his class, would look up briefly, and then, in a few minutes, resume business as usual.

Sunday, June 9, 2013

Current Market Barometers and All Time New High Leadership

Commentary has been thin lately due to caring for my wife's rehabilitation. I appreciate the supportive emails from readers. Thank you.

The market became extremely oversold Wednesday June 5th on the McClellan Oscillator, the percent of SP500 stocks with RSI above 70, and the inverse - the percent of SP500 stocks with RSI below 30. 


S&P 500 vs % of S&P 500 Stocks With 14-Day RSI Above 70

S&P 500 vs % of S&P 500 Stocks With 14-Day RSI Below 30

The last chart shows a parabolic move higher in stocks moving into oversold to very oversold levels. Since Thursday, it has collapsed back down. That is typical at the end of market corrections. These three reversals coincided with Thursday's am reversal of the SP500 higher off its 50 day moving average near the round 1600 figure on a large increase in volume. Friday saw continued follow-through higher. Tuesday through Friday of the new week will provide the potential for a Trend Change Day up if the major averages gain at least 1.2% on increasing volume from the prior session. This would add a strong tailwind to bullish sails.

While rates have increased and pressured, the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index, which aggregates a plethora of credit market indicators, remains skewed in very positive territory. 
The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index combines yield spreads and indices from U.S. Money Markets, Equity Markets, and Bond Markets into a normalized index. The values of this index are Z-scores, which represent the number of standard deviations that current financial conditions lie above or below the average of the January 1994-June 2008 period.

All time new high leadership showing very strong relative strength includes the following names: CBOE, CVI, MX, SILC, RH, WAIR, IPAR, CCIX, STMP, YY, TRIP, and FNGN

Friday, May 17, 2013

Perspective: Forced Buyers of Risk

nice piece. How about this for perspecitve on the "fix" for yield in a ZIRP world. Along the uptrend, I spy another roadside signpost...

Forced Buyers of Risk


FOBOR or FUBAR?

FUBARIn a no-yield world, many perceive themselves as ”forced buyers of risk” (FOBOR). By way of example, the Financial Times reported the following note from BofA Merrill Lynch:
In a world of zero rates, where $19.4 trillion of government bonds (that’s 48% of the total market) is trading below 1%, it’s little wonder the “lust for yield” is as strong as it is. Last week Rwanda offered 6.875% 10-year bonds to borrow $400mn, an amount equivalent to 5.5% of its 2012 GDP. The offer was 9-10X oversubscribed. And Panama successfully issued a $750mn 40-year bond with a 4.3% coupon (note that in the past 50 years the US 30-year Treasury bond has traded below 4.3% for just 10% of the period).
In what universe does it make sense for people to fight to loan Rwanda money at 6 7/8 percent?

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Graphic: Homebuilders vs Lumber Prices

Through visual inspection, note how they typically correlate rather tightly. The divergence accellerated in mid April to now. Wait for a trendline break of the beginning of April speedline uptrend in the homebuilders if you want to short the growing divergence. Upon price breaking below the speedline, use the most recent high as a stop.

Friday, May 10, 2013

Magazine Cover: Wall Street Is Back

So here is another magazine cover to appear after the Barron's cover of a few weeks ago.


The trend remains up. Stick with the trend. Realize that it's getting obvious. The more obvious, the later the stage and rougher the ride may get. 

UPDATE: Delay in Posting

I just passed my Chartered Market Technician Level 2 exam last weekend. I spent time preparing versus blogging. I will be posting more shortly.



Sunday, May 5, 2013

Jeffrey Sachs Calls Out Wall Street Criminality and Pathological Greed

nice piece


Jeffrey Sachs Calls Out Wall Street Criminality and Pathological Greed « naked capitalism:


Jeffrey Sachs Calls Out Wall Street Criminality and Pathological Greed

One of the things that Matt Stoller has stressed that the possibility of reform is remote until breaks within the elites take place.
Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia professor and director of the Earth Institute at Columbia, is a controversial figure for his neoliberal stance on macroeconomics and his role in promoting the use of “shock therapy” in emerging economies. But it is also important to recognize that criticism from a connected, respected insider has more significance than that of someone like Bill Black, who has made a career of taking on bank fraud but has never reached a top policy-making level.
This talk is blistering at several points. It was recorded at a conference “Fixing the Banking System for Good” on April 17 (hat tip Jesse). If you have trouble with the embedded version, try YouTube.

Some of the blunt parts:
(3:10) I know that Summers, for example, continued really institute moral hazard policies right and left by fighting against any limits on compensation of these people who had entered into the breach.
(3:48) …a lot of what’s happened and what’s been revealed is in my view prima facie criminal behavior. It’s financial fraud on a very large extent. There’s also a tremendous amount of insider trading. You can even watch it when you are living in New York, how that works.
(12:30) I believe we have a crisis of values that is extremely deep, because the regulations and the legal structures need reform. But I meet a lot of these people on Wall Street on a regular basis right now. I’m going to put it very bluntly. I regard the moral environment as pathological. And I’m talking about the human interactions that I have. I’ve not seen anything like this, not felt it so palpably. These people are out to make billions of dollars and nothing should stop them from that.
They have no responsibility to pay taxes, they have no responsibility to their clients, they have no responsibility to people… counterparties in transactions. They are tough, greedy, aggressive, and feel absolutely out of control, in a quite literal sense. And they have gamed the system to a remarkable extent and they have a docile president, a docile White House and a docile regulatory system that absolutely can’t find its voice. It’s terrified of these companies.
If you look at the campaign contributions, which I happened to do yesterday for another purpose, the financial markets are the number one campaign contributors in the U.S. system now. We have a corrupt politics to the core, I’m afraid to say…and both parties are up to their necks in this. This has nothing to do with Democrats or Republicans. It really doesn’t have anything to do with right wing or left wing, by the way. The corruption, as far as I can see, is everywhere.
But what it’s led to is this sense of impunity that is really stunning and you feel it on the individual level right now. And it’s very very unhealthy. I have waited for four years, five years now, to see one figure on Wall Street speak in a moral language and I’ve not seen it once. And that is shocking to me. And I’ve waited for a judge, for our President, for somebody and it hasn’t happened. And by the way, it’s not gonna happen any time soon, it seems.
Clearly, Sachs is not taken by Lloyd Blankfein’s “doing God’s work” claims, nor by the hectoring of overstretched consumers to make their debt payments after banks got overt and back door bailouts, and continue to be subsidized by savers via ZIRP.
We can only hope that Sachs’ direct talk emboldens others at his level to speak up.

Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/04/jeffrey-sachs-calls-out-wall-street-criminality-and-pathological-greed.html#xeBqWPL3aII4dUkq.99 

Monday, April 29, 2013

Trend Change Day Up on 4/23

A Trend Change Day up occurred on 4/23 with a higher volume, strong rally of 1.2% or more. The market has held those gains. The contrarian Barron's cover, if it will coincide with a top, happens within six days. It appears a false signal. Europe bets on a buy the rumor rate cut from the ECB which creates a rising tide and staves systemic concerns. News flow remains very negative across the pond and their bourses rally. That's hallmark bull market action. The Hindenburg window remains open for another month. I reapply risk with half size positions. A fresh breakout on volume in the SP 500 above the April highs will trigger full size positions.

Earnings breakouts of ATNH winners include SILC and ANGI. I notice how strong the homebuilders rally. LNKD reports this week.

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Magazine Cover: Barron's DOW 16,000

So you can read my last post here on some large negative issues in equityland. Leadership erodes.

Saturday the Barron's cover below appears.  Large font and a gloating picture coming on the heels of the aforementioned negatives. It's a nice bearish setup.

Magazine covers like Barron's tend to call a top within 6 trading days. The most recent near term top and subsequent breakdown/breakout failure/bull trap already occurred. In this case, the six day window applies to continued downside follow-through.

Barron's is a second tier cover compared to Time/Newsweek rag mags that deal with non-financial matters.  Emotional covers on those tend to precede longer trends. Barron's time constant tends to work up to three months when it does.

Heavy volume breakdown this past week in the Spoo futures, leadership came under broad pressure, and a Hindenburg triggered with the large new high/new low bifurcation (the hardest parameter to achieve). While I am already flat protecting profits, the cover below made me smile. Nice cherry on the bear icing to coincide with the already large technical damage hint.

From Barron's cover story:


The stock market isn't the only thing that has set records this spring. Barron's semiannual Big Money poll of professional investors also is setting a record -- for bullishness, that is. In our latest survey, 74% of money managers identify themselves as bullish or very bullish about the prospects for U.S. stocks -- an all-time high for Big Money, going back more than 20 years. What's more, about a third of managers expect the Dow Jones industrials to scale the 16,000 level by the middle of next year, notwithstanding a dismal week of selling that left the blue-chip index at 14,547.51 on Friday.


expand large image



Edit:  Here is a chart from investment manager John Hussman that shows previous similar Barron's covers. Notice that one coincided with sideways chop and the second was early but preceded a very sharp drop.

magazine cover barron's hussman






Thursday, April 18, 2013

Hindenburg Triggered

Go here for a Hindenburg synopsis.

Monday was the first observation and Wednesday the second. It takes two for the dirigible to tango.

It's a melodramatic name but the situation it observes is odd and dangerous based on historic testing. Ignore the name. Focus on what it measures. Surging new highs and lows at the same time shows a growing, unstable bifurcation occurring in an uptrend. Big swoons come after. Not all, but enough to give me cause for pause.

The Hindenburg window for a small to large decline is 36 days starting today. They can take till the end to complete or start right away. The most recent Hindenburgs have failed or shown a tiny decline so I kinda think (fuzzy logic algorithm) this one will go deeper. The flashcrash never threw a Hindenburg. Back during the 2008 bear debacle with threw multiple Hindenburgs, the indicator got saturated with headlines. This trigger gets nothing. A contrarian ignored pot risk boiling quickly in the trading business.

Also, the Bloomberg US financial conditions index, while high, has clearly broken down. The European version is much lower comparatively and has broken down as well. Both indicators are an amalgam of credit spreads, indicators that show the placidity or turbidity of underlying credit (mostly) conditions. Credit is equity foundation. Credit conditions are system leverage foundation.

It's gone back to yuk for growth. Protect assets. Odds feel (fuzzy I know) high for an outsized swoon. Commodities like Dr Copper tank. The other industrial metals tank. Crude tanks. European aftershocks from Cypress and the contracting EU economy weigh. The linchpin German DAX tanked yesterday and made fresh four month lows. I wonder what the fleeing bank asset picture looks like over there in the peripheral countries (Portugal/Slovenia) and the larger secondaries of Spain and Italy. Hey SuperMario Draghi: "Wanna send that data out early instead of the two month delay so we can vet your comment that deposits aren't a raging river flowing out of the periphery?  No, eh? I'm supposed to take your non-biased word, eh?"

Monday and Wednesday both were large distribution days. The volume pattern in the Spoo future this week is bearish. Monday and Wednesday's selloffs came on gigantic volume. Spoo support is key between 1529 and 1536 - the latter intertwines congestion support high and the 50 day SMA. Congestion support low begins March 18. There is no way to Estee Lauder that Hogzilla.

With earnings season coming up in a couple weeks, the most recent market breakout failing badly on large volume, the growth environment is poor. I'd rather consider applying long side risk to all time new high surging earnings gap breakouts that can begin large moves than current breakouts. Bet size for the former depends mostly on the broader market condition at the time. Since that is in the unpredictable and non-existent future, I'll choose to ignore it for the ongoing trading moment of Now.

Investment Jeopardy: I'll take All Cash for a $1000 Alex.  "What is the current investment of your portfolio Now?"







Friday, April 12, 2013

AAII Bullish Sentiment - Massive Disbelief at the V Bottom Rally

AAII is one sentiment measure I follow. So just as the market creates a clear trend change day up, AAII tanks in total disbelief.

Nice underpinning sentiment fuel.


aaii.gif (618×328):

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Trend Change Breakout Wednesday

This is a short post due to ongoing commitments that include caring for my wife after her stroke, studying for the CMT level 2 exam and trading.

Yesterday was a Trend Change Day breakout on the major averages - rising more that 1.3% on increasing volume along with large technical breakouts from technical congestion over the past month. Look for growth stocks to find a bid after leaderships 4% drubbing last week. So far the rally off those lows is a V.

Some names include LNKD, SBGI, PLAB, APO, PRIM, PCOM, WOR, and PIKE. A few are within 13 days of earnings. I avoid trading these. From my backtests, some run into earnings while others fall and the net is breakeven to profit. The rest chop and go nowhere until the release. I prefer to sit out the volatility and deploy risk capital on those positions that have surging thrusts upon their release. FYI.